Pakistan | Iraq | Turkey | CIS Markets
ISLAMABAD – As Pakistan navigates its roadmap toward the Road to 2030 initiative, the debate over trade policy has shifted. While tariff rationalization remains a primary tool for industrial development, experts and industry leaders are increasingly emphasizing that trade policy alone is insufficient. According to recent high-level discussions, the government must complement tariff adjustments with profound governance reforms to truly unlock the manufacturing sector’s potential.
The Governance Gap in Industrial Growth
Shakeel Shah, FBR Member for Customs (Operations), speaking at the Pakistan’s Tariff Reform and the Road to 2030 forum, pointed out a recurring cycle in the national economy. Pakistan’s growth model, he noted, has historically been revenue-centric and focused heavily on protectionism.
“When we begin to grow, pressure mounts on imports because a corresponding export push is missing,” Shah explained. “This leads us to enter stabilization programs every few years. The critical question remains: how do we break this cycle?” He advocated for the elimination of income tax at the import stage to alleviate the fiscal burden currently weighing down domestic manufacturers.
The Chemical Industry Perspective
For the chemical manufacturing sector, a backbone of Pakistan’s textile and leather industries, the situation is particularly acute. Zafar Mehmood, CEO of NIMIR Chemicals, offered a candid assessment, arguing that simply reducing customs duties is not a cure-all for the industry’s operational hurdles.
“Manufacturers are currently grappling with an immense burden of auxiliary taxes and unfair competition from the informal sector,” Mehmood stated. He cautioned against the reduction of customs duty slabs from 20% to 15%, suggesting that without addressing these structural issues, the benefits of tariff rationalization for consumers remain negligible, while the burden on compliant industries only increases. His warning regarding the industry’s long-term survival under the current trajectory of the National Tariff Policy (NTP) highlights the tension between trade liberalization and industrial protection.
Policy Predictability vs. Short-Term Targets
The broader industrial consensus emphasizes that inconsistent policy-making remains the greatest threat to growth. Zain Mustafa of Rubatech Manufacturing described the current environment as characterized by uncertainty, which stifles investment.
“Export growth cannot be manufactured simply by setting targets; it requires an enabling environment where those exports become commercially viable,” Mustafa noted. He stressed that industries require time and a stable, predictable policy framework to adapt, build capacity, and respond to global market shifts.
Global Lessons and Regional Comparisons
Economists at the forum argued that Pakistan must pivot away from the import-substitution models that defined the 1970s and 80s. Dr. Robina Athar, an independent expert, cited India’s successful transition from high-tariff regimes (100-150%) to modernized, lower-tariff policies. She suggested that a five-year window is ample time for domestic industries to adjust, provided the policy environment remains steady.
Dr. Vaqar Ahmed, an independent economist, echoed the need for consistency, warning that tariff reforms only deliver results when they are implemented without the interference of vested interests or frequent, conflicting sectoral adjustments.
The Outlook for 2030
As the National Tariff Policy enters its next phase, the prevailing sentiment among manufacturers like Wajid Bukhari of the Pakistan Association of Large Steel Production is one of cautious skepticism. While the initial impacts of the NTP were perceived as positive, there is a growing concern that “on-paper” safeguards are not providing the necessary security for domestic manufacturers.
Ultimately, the consensus at the forum was clear: If Pakistan aims to foster a competitive, export-oriented industrial base by 2030, the focus must shift from merely tinkering with tariff percentages to fostering a predictable, transparent, and streamlined governance environment that supports, rather than burdens, the domestic manufacturing sector.
Source: Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
